the singularity of being and nothingness
Cool Stuff
More Probability Fun: The Monty Hall Problem
Jun 5th
This is a classic!
Consider you’re on the game show Let’s Make a Deal!. The game is simple: there are 3 doors presented to you. One of the them has a fabulous prize behind it, while the other two hide nothing but shattered dreams.
When you initially select a door, the host (Monty Hall) will reveal one of the doors which hides your shattered dreams. Because Monty knows which doors conceal what, he will always reveal one door that is empty, while always leaving 1 empty and 1 prize door.
* If you initially select the winning door, Monty will reveal an empty door. * If you initially select an empty door, Monty will reveal the other empty door.
Left with two doors (one with the prize, the other with nothing), you have the opportunity to either stick with your initial selection, or vacillate entirely and change your mind, selecting the other remaining door.
So the question is simple: Should you stick or change?
The answer, quite counter-intuitively, is that you should most definitely change.
WHAT?? How does this make any sense? If there are two doors left, surely the probability of winning or losing is equivalent, right?
Nope. But why?
Let’s look at this in steps.
Initially (unconditioned), the probability of selecting More >
Fun with Probabilities: Answers
Jun 4th
So here’s our 2 probability puzzles:
Puzzle #1: I have two children. One of my children is a boy. What is the probability that I have two boys?
Puzzle #2: I have two children. One of my children is a boy who was born on Tuesday. What is the probability that I have two boys?
Let’s tackle the first one. By sheer intuition, the average person would probably answer that the probability of the second child being a boy is 50% (I know I did the first time). After all, the population is (seemingly) roughly divided equally between males and females, so it just feels right that the answer is somewhere around 50%.
However, there is a bit of a trick in the question. The question, after all, is not actually asking about the chances that any particular, individual child is male or female. Rather, it’s asking what the probability that both children are boys is, based on the knowledge that one is a boy.
So how do we work this out? First, we need to represent all the possible arrangements of children in this scenario. Since one is already known to be a boy, the possible arrangements are:
Boy – Boy (1/3) Boy – Girl (1/3) Girl More >
Fun with Probabilities: Introduction
Jun 4th
I recently puzzled through some interesting probability riddles with some co-workers, and thought I would share. It comes in two parts (somewhat related). To allow you to work these out on your own without *accidentally* seeing the answer, I’ll simply state the riddles on this note, and provide the answers on the second 🙂
Here goes:
Puzzle #1: I have two children. One of my children is a boy. What is the probability that I have two boys?
Puzzle #2: I have two children. One of my children is a boy who was born on Tuesday. What is the probability that I have two boys?
Share this: Font Problem…Resolved!
May 19th
Recently, one of my clients sent me a purchased font in the dreaded .dfont format (.dfont is how Macs save fonts…it stands for "Data Fork Font"…dumb!). While this is nice on Macs [several fonts can be bundled in one .dfont file], it's not great for a PC because, well, Windows has no idea what to do with it.
Fortunately, Google provided an answer pretty quickly. Apparently, there's a nifty little bit of freeware out there called DfontSplitter. If the name isn't obvious, DfontSplitter basically breaks up the .dfont file from the Mac and converts it into individual True Type Font files…these Windows understands 🙂
So for those of you out there who have a Mac and are making fun of me for my lack thereof, bite me! For those that are in the same boat as me, check out DfontSplitter–it pretty much rocks!
Share this:
Will Chrome Kill Firefox?
Oct 12th
I've read alot of articles on the interblog in which people claim that Google's new browser, Chrome, will hurt Firefox, rather than Internet Explorer. The biggest reason for this, the protagonists claim, is that given that Internet Explorer users are the least likely to change their browsers, the majority of acceptance of Chrome will come from others…hence the hit to Firefox.
But is this really accurate? I don't buy it. The way I see it, the argument made above is true, but in reverse. It is undeniable that people who use IE, besides being horribly misguided in their choice of browsers, are less than likely to switch to a new browser. But it is equally true, IMO, that those who use Firefox are already predisposed to using more than one browser. So rather than a huge pile of competition, Chrome represents just another option.
Of course, if Chrome turns out to be really flippin' cool (which I don't see yet…) and vastly superior to all other options, it is probably more accurate that ALL browsers are in trouble. The time is not far away when Google will be placing proprietary OS's on new computers and, just like the Behemoth Microsoft before it, More >
Google Analytics Comes to the Desktop
May 20th
If you don't use Google Analytics for your site analytics solution, then either you have something that you're paying for (which is okay if it's not actually YOU paying for it), or you're using something else that's not very good.
I like Analytics because it is super easy to install, very fast, and provides some seriously robust statistics for free–tough to beat that.
Well, today I ran across a really cool application that is being developed to bring Analytics to the desktop.
Currently, this application is only in beta, but it has a lot of promise. Even with the limited suite of services being offered in the current version, Google Analytics for AIR delivers strongly.
One of the really nice features of this application is that it is super-fast, which is more than can be said for the web interface. Additionally, everything is laid out very intuitively, so there is not really any adjustment needed to transition from the web interface.
The only criticism I would have at this stage is that the interface itself is really BLUE. This is a minor criticism, of course, but I would like to see more white rather than blue. Picky, huh?
Anyway, if you use Analytics, check this out–I More >
Google Reader Shiny-ness, Part II
May 13th
About a week ago, I mentioned my love of Google Reader, and how it contributes significantly to my web design process.
Well, it got just a bit better for me today. While using Google Reader to follow one of my favorite blogs, I ran across a brand-spanking new AIR-based application that brings the functionality of Google Reader to the desktop.
This new application is ReadAir. It is really nothing more than HTML and JavaScript, but it is shiny. And the functionality–on the whole–is pretty good. At this stage, it is still a bit buggy. Unread feed counts do not update when an article is viewed, and it is also a bit slow. However, the project is open-source, so hopefully others will come along and expand upon it to make it better.
So if you like Google Reader, take a look at ReadAir. Oh, and be sure to let me know what you think about it!!
Share this: Google Reader: An Essential Tool for the Web Designer
May 6th
I wish I could express how critical Google Reader is to my web design process. How does an RSS feed reader aid my web design, you ask?
I'll tell you!
There are approximately 13.25 billion CSS design galleries currently on the world-wide interblog. In my experience, each gallery updates their gallery with approximately 5-8 new designs every 3 days. So, in the course of 3 days there are 60+ billion websites featured on design galleries, give or take a handful.
Obviously, I kid, but the truth is not far off. There are a lot of CSS design galleries out there, and they are constantly adding new sites every day. Morever, there are hundreds of really talented designers out there that have incredibly creative ideas about good web design.
Now let's be honest: creative web design is never done is isolation. I personally find a lot of great inspiration from others, and attempt to distill the best of what I see into my own designs.
So where does Google Reader fit into this? Well, imagine trying to follow each of these sites (I currently follow over 108 galleries, and design-related blogs). Live bookmarks is unthinkable. Visiting each site would be an absolute nightmare. So I need More >
blogactionday.org
Aug 17th
Today, I ran across an interesting site: blogactionday.org . The concept is very simple–this website is organizing as many blogs as possible to join together on October 15, 2007 to talk about the environment. The orginators of this idea believe that a mass, one day conversation about the environment from the myriad perspectives in the blogging world will raise consciousness about the environmental issues and challenges that face our planet.
As of today, blogactionday.org suggests that a quarter of a million people are currently represented by the 500+ blogs that are registered.
existdissolve.com is now a registered participant, and I am already brainstorming ideas for the specific post that I will make on October 15th. I would encourage others to do the same by clicking here . (I will also be linking to it in the bottom section of this site). Even you feel that environmental activism is bunk, register and blog about that. The point of blogactionday.org is not to promote a specific hegemony of environmental thinking, but more generally to get people talking and thinking about the environment.
Share this: Where No Man Has Gone Before
Jul 20th
Okay, I have some theological bits coming soon, but I can't resist this.
I ABSOLUTELY LOVE STAR TREK: THE NEXT GENERATION – SEASON 1 !!!!
There are a lot of reasons, of course, so here we go:
1.) Terrifically cheesy. Okay, so we have to give some grace to the first season. After all, the producers were trying something very new (for the time) with state of the art technology. There is apparent tension between trying to keep the spirit of Kirk's enterprise (notice the "wheeeereee" noice of the computer from the OLLLLDDD Star Trek…and the mini-skirts…and the many LED display computers) and move forward into a more inspired (and, let's be honest, better looking) future. Also, the acting is quite suspect, as each of the main actors (with the exception of Patrick Stewart) is clearly struggling to find the pathos of their particular characters.
2.) Overtly political. Whether it is a commentary on the evils of rampant capitalism, the rarified cuteness of religious belief, or the villifying of basically the entire 20th century on Earth, the first season never pulls punches nor wastes an opportunity to weigh in on (what was then) pertinent and contemporary political/social issues.
3.) Respect for literature. Okay, I love More >
